Potential distributions of invasive vertebrates in the Iberian Peninsula under projected changes in climate extreme events

Aim Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause profound impacts on ecosystem function and diversity, human health, well-being livelihoods. Climate change is an important driver of biological invasions, so it critical to develop models climate-driven scenarios IAS range shifts establish preventive measures. In this study, we analyse how projected changes in the frequency magnitude climate extreme events could affect spread six most widely distributed invasive vertebrate Iberian Peninsula. Location Taxa Red avadavat (Amandava amandava), common waxbill (Estrilda astrild), monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus), rose-ringed (Psittacula krameri), American mink (Neovison vison) pond slider (Trachemys scripta). Methods We followed best-practice standards for distribution (SDMs) regarding handling response predictor variables, model building evaluation using metrics that assess different facets performance. used ensemble approach with four modelling methods varying complexity, including both regression-based tree-based machine-learning algorithms. analysed five regional current (1971–2000) future (2021–2050). principal components analysis consensus among outputs positively weighed predictions from well-performing models. Results Selected showed high good predictive capacity block cross-validation areas. Generalized Linear Models Additive scored highest reliability (calibration), but Bayesian Regression Trees provided best balance between calibration discrimination capacity. Forecasts include visible environmental favourability, losses generally outweighing gains, some areas becoming more favourable several species. Main conclusions Increased and/or intensity associated ongoing are reduce overall invasion risk examined although increases favourability should be expected locally.